BTC Flow Analysis — December 25, 2025 CHOP
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,992,172 trades
Summary
December 25, 2025: Bitcoin gave back 0.51%. The 315 BTC of net selling flow at $87,225 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
A frustrating day for buyers. Cumulative flow leaned positive but price declined -0.51% (correlation: -0.47). Passive selling at higher prices kept rejecting the advances.
Whale-sized trades (20 bars above 3σ, peak 34.4σ) pushed 28 BTC of net buying between 00:15–23:19 UTC — while price went the other way. Possible accumulation, possible pain.
Most of the action happened during US hours, which accounted for 79% of the day's net flow (300 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
Net selling for 6 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
A tale of two halves — buyers pushed 26 BTC through the morning, then sellers flipped the script with 341 BTC in the afternoon.
No single session dominated price action: Asia +0.19%, Europe -0.23%, US -0.47%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.19% | -47 BTC | 12% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.23% | 32 BTC | 9% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.47% | -300 BTC | 79% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Market conditions were chop — and this day didn't deviate. A -0.51% return against a regime average of +0.10%.
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