BTC Flow Analysis — December 18, 2025 BEAR
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 6,946,947 trades
Summary
Bitcoin drifted lower (-0.84%) on Thursday, December 18, 2025, closing at $85,516 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 68 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
37 bars of outsized trades (peak 16.1σ) appeared between 00:33–22:28 UTC, with whale flow netting 597 BTC of buying.
Flow reversed midday. The first 12 hours belonged to sellers (-174 BTC), but buyers erased that and then some (+106 BTC) in the back half.
Net selling for 15 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia +0.68%, Europe +2.32%, US -3.75%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.68% | -148 BTC | 50% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 2.32% | 114 BTC | 38% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -3.75% | -34 BTC | 12% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
In retrospect, the bear regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 0 day(s) away.
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