BTC Flow Analysis — December 16, 2025 BEAR
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 6,099,692 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $87,863 on December 16, 2025 after ground out a 1.66% gain. Aggressor-side flow netted -324 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Aggressor-side sellers pushed flow negative throughout the day (flow-price correlation: -0.44), yet price finished up +1.66%. Passive buyers on the bid absorbed the selling without showing up in aggressor-side data.
The big players were active all day. 31 bars of outsized trades (9.6σ peak) from 00:51–23:41 UTC, adding 224 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Day 13 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The US session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -0.48%, Europe +0.49%, US +1.64%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.48% | -362 BTC | 30% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.49% | -403 BTC | 33% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 1.64% | 441 BTC | 37% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
In retrospect, the bear regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 2 day(s) away.
Related Days
Days with similar flow patterns and market conditions.
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