BTC Flow Analysis — October 16, 2025 BULL
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 6,127,094 trades
Summary
Bitcoin fell 2.3% on Thursday, October 16, 2025, closing at $108,194 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 3,603 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 35 bars of outsized trades (9.6σ peak) from 00:48–21:57 UTC, adding 1,105 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
This was day 4 of consecutive net selling. Multi-day streaks reflect sustained conviction, not noise.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.92 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia -0.16%, Europe +0.25%, US -2.40%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.16% | -435 BTC | 12% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.25% | -1110 BTC | 31% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -2.40% | -2058 BTC | 57% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The 3,603 BTC of net selling was extreme by any measure (-2.1σ vs bull-regime average). The market's typical flow balance broke down.
The bull regime was running out of road — 1 day(s) before the market shifted to chop. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
Related Days
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