BTC Flow Analysis — March 19, 2025 CHOP
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 3,774,761 trades
Summary
March 19, 2025: Bitcoin pushed +5.0% higher. The 543 BTC of net selling flow at $86,846 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
A textbook absorption day. Sellers hit the bid aggressively (correlation between cumulative flow and price: -0.67), but price still climbed +4.99%. The buying was passive — limit orders soaking up the supply.
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 25 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 10.5σ), spread across 00:50–22:11 UTC. The 384 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
A tale of two halves — sellers pushed 758 BTC through the morning, then buyers flipped the script with 215 BTC in the afternoon.
Breaking it down by session: Asia +0.57%, Europe +1.08%, US +3.27%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.57% | -504 BTC | 48% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.08% | -291 BTC | 28% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 3.27% | 252 BTC | 24% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
A statistical outlier: +4.99% return sits at +2.1σ from the chop-regime average of +0.10%. Days like this are rare within this regime.
The market was 1 day(s) into a new chop regime, having transitioned from bear. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
The selling streak extended to 5 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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