BTC Flow Analysis — March 04, 2025 BEAR
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 10,326,631 trades
Summary
March 04, 2025: Bitcoin ground out a +1.23% gain. The 440 BTC of net selling flow at $87,282 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 36 bars of outsized trades (6.8σ peak) from 00:13–23:52 UTC, adding 357 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
A volatile day: 8.7% range from $81,500 to $88,968. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.92 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
A tale of two halves — sellers pushed 1,153 BTC through the morning, then buyers flipped the script with 713 BTC in the afternoon.
Breaking it down by session: Asia -3.52%, Europe -0.46%, US +5.41%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -3.52% | -1465 BTC | 59% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.46% | 14 BTC | 1% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 5.41% | 1012 BTC | 41% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
This day sat within a bear regime. The +1.23% return tracked the regime average of -0.27%.
Related Days
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