BTC Flow Analysis — March 03, 2025 BEAR
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 9,797,860 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $86,221 on March 03, 2025 after dropped 8.5% in a sharp selloff. Aggressor-side flow netted -3,340 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 22 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 7.9σ), spread across 00:29–22:43 UTC. The 521 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
A volatile day: 9.9% range from $85,117 to $94,416. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.97). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The US session drove 76% of the day's directional flow, with 3,136 BTC of net selling. The other two sessions were comparatively quiet.
The US session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -2.02%, Europe +1.32%, US -7.87%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -2.02% | -587 BTC | 14% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.32% | 382 BTC | 9% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -7.87% | -3136 BTC | 76% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Even by bear-regime standards, -8.54% was extreme — -2.3σ from the -0.27% average. This wasn't a normal bear day.
Related Days
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