BTC Flow Analysis — March 02, 2025 BEAR
Sunday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 7,403,218 trades
Summary
On Sunday, March 02, 2025, Bitcoin surged +9.5% to $94,270. Net flow: +3,659 BTC — buyers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 38 bars of outsized trades (10.5σ peak) from 00:58–23:57 UTC, adding 499 BTC of buying pressure on top of the broader buying flow.
The 11.6% intraday range ($85,051 – $95,000) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.99). Aggressor-side buying translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out US and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 92% of the net flow (3,621 BTC buying).
Across sessions: Asia +0.20%, Europe -0.60%, US +9.99% — with US doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.20% | -143 BTC | 4% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.60% | 180 BTC | 5% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 9.99% | 3621 BTC | 92% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At +2.7σ from the regime mean, this +9.53% move was an outlier within the bear period (avg -0.27%).
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