BTC Flow Analysis — February 22, 2025 CHOP
Saturday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,506,418 trades
Summary
February 22, 2025: Bitcoin ticked up +0.38%. The 682 BTC of net selling flow at $96,551 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
A textbook absorption day. Sellers hit the bid aggressively (correlation between cumulative flow and price: -0.57), but price still climbed +0.38%. The buying was passive — limit orders soaking up the supply.
Large players were on the wrong side — or the patient side. 29 bars of outsized trade sizes (peak 13.1σ) showed net buying, but price moved against them. Either they were accumulating into weakness or got caught.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns were muted across the board: Asia +0.11%, Europe +0.29%, US -0.02%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.11% | -239 BTC | 35% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.29% | -201 BTC | 29% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.02% | -242 BTC | 35% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The chop regime was running out of road — 1 day(s) before the market shifted to bear. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
The selling streak extended to 23 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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