BTC Flow Analysis — December 18, 2024 BULL
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 8,762,120 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $100,204 on December 18, 2024 after crashed 5.6%. Aggressor-side flow netted -3,691 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 30 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 14.2σ), spread across 00:12–23:49 UTC. The 720 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Day 3 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.91). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The US session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -1.77%, Europe +0.32%, US -4.18%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.77% | -1748 BTC | 47% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.32% | -51 BTC | 1% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -4.18% | -1893 BTC | 51% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 3,691 BTC net selling, registering at -2.2σ relative to other bull-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
Even by bull-regime standards, -5.59% was extreme — -2.1σ from the +0.34% average. This wasn't a normal bull day.
In retrospect, the bull regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 0 day(s) away.
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