BTC Flow Analysis — July 15, 2024 CHOP
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,600,425 trades
Summary
On Monday, July 15, 2024, Bitcoin surged +6.5% to $64,724. Net flow: -538 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Despite persistent sell-side aggression (flow-price correlation -0.56), price rose +6.46%. This divergence typically signals strong passive demand — buyers who don't need to cross the spread.
Large players were on the wrong side — or the patient side. 25 bars of outsized trade sizes (peak 5.9σ) showed net buying, but price moved against them. Either they were accumulating into weakness or got caught.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out Europe and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 89% of the net flow (613 BTC selling).
Across sessions: Asia +3.36%, Europe +0.11%, US +2.89% — with Asia doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 3.36% | 18 BTC | 3% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.11% | -613 BTC | 89% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 2.89% | 57 BTC | 8% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Even by chop-regime standards, +6.46% was extreme — +2.7σ from the +0.10% average. This wasn't a normal chop day.
This was near the start of a chop regime (day 2), with the bear regime barely in the rearview mirror.
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