BTC Flow Analysis — July 12, 2024 BEAR
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,749,738 trades
Summary
Bitcoin ground out a +0.96% gain on Friday, July 12, 2024, closing at $57,889 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 675 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.31 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +0.96%.
The big players were active all day. 35 bars of outsized trades (7.0σ peak) from 01:14–23:48 UTC, adding 3 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia -0.41%, Europe +1.30%, US +0.07%. Europe led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.41% | -533 BTC | 59% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.30% | -259 BTC | 29% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.07% | 117 BTC | 13% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
In retrospect, the bear regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 1 day(s) away.
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