BTC Flow Analysis — January 20, 2024 CHOP
Saturday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 807,324 trades
Summary
On Saturday, January 20, 2024, Bitcoin went nowhere to $41,696. Net flow: -809 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Large players were on the wrong side — or the patient side. 21 bars of outsized trade sizes (peak 7.1σ) showed net buying, but price moved against them. Either they were accumulating into weakness or got caught.
A disconnect between flow and price (correlation: -0.31). Neither buyers nor sellers could convert aggressor-side pressure into directional movement.
An unusually tight range: 1.00% from high to low. Compression days like this tend to resolve with a larger move in the days that follow.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns were muted across the board: Asia -0.02%, Europe -0.04%, US +0.15%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.02% | -32 BTC | 4% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.04% | -451 BTC | 56% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.15% | -327 BTC | 40% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
This day sat within a chop regime. The +0.09% return tracked the regime average of +0.10%.
Related Days
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