BTC Flow Analysis — January 12, 2024 BULL
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,809,192 trades
Summary
Bitcoin dropped 7.7% in a sharp selloff on Friday, January 12, 2024, closing at $42,783 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 2,913 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
55 bars of outsized trades (peak 9.6σ) appeared between 01:51–23:31 UTC, with whale flow netting 1,627 BTC of buying.
Flow reversed midday. The first 12 hours belonged to buyers (+15 BTC), but sellers erased that and then some (-2,928 BTC) in the back half.
The 10.8% intraday range ($41,500 – $46,516) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.95). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
US traders set the tone. 93% of directional flow — 2,699 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia -0.71%, Europe -0.50%, US -6.55%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.71% | -141 BTC | 5% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.50% | -73 BTC | 3% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -6.55% | -2699 BTC | 93% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
A statistical outlier: -7.67% return sits at -2.9σ from the bull-regime average of +0.34%. Days like this are rare within this regime.
Among the final days of this bull period. Within 2 day(s), the market would flip to chop.
A -1.7σ day — selling pressure exceeded the typical bull-regime flow (-386 BTC) by a notable margin.
Related Days
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