BTC Flow Analysis — January 04, 2024 BULL
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,819,944 trades
Summary
January 04, 2024: Bitcoin rallied +3.0%. The 826 BTC of net selling flow at $44,151 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
A textbook absorption day. Sellers hit the bid aggressively (correlation between cumulative flow and price: -0.34), but price still climbed +3.05%. The buying was passive — limit orders soaking up the supply.
Large players were on the wrong side — or the patient side. 11 bars of outsized trade sizes (peak 14.2σ) showed net buying, but price moved against them. Either they were accumulating into weakness or got caught.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Most of the action happened during Asia hours, which accounted for 66% of the day's net flow (871 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
A tale of two halves — sellers pushed 1,319 BTC through the morning, then buyers flipped the script with 493 BTC in the afternoon.
Breaking it down by session: Asia -0.19%, Europe +1.36%, US +1.86%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.19% | -871 BTC | 66% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.36% | -199 BTC | 15% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 1.86% | 243 BTC | 19% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Nothing unusual for a bull-regime day. The +3.05% return was consistent with the period's average of +0.34%.
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