BTC Flow Analysis — December 04, 2023 BULL
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,112,219 trades
Summary
Bitcoin exploded +5.1% higher on Monday, December 04, 2023, closing at $41,991 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 2,081 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.45 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +5.05%.
The big players were active all day. 21 bars of outsized trades (17.3σ peak) from 01:05–15:29 UTC, adding 2,238 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Net selling for 3 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Europe traders set the tone. 61% of directional flow — 2,255 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia +3.67%, Europe +0.71%, US +0.61%. Asia led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 3.67% | 819 BTC | 22% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.71% | -2255 BTC | 61% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.61% | -645 BTC | 17% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
This day sat within a bull regime. The +5.05% return tracked the regime average of +0.34%.
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