BTC Flow Analysis — October 04, 2023 CHOP
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,188,381 trades
Summary
Bitcoin ticked up +1.28% on Wednesday, October 04, 2023, closing at $27,779 as buyers controlled aggregate flow with 339 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.37 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +1.28%.
The big players were active all day. 21 bars of outsized trades (5.4σ peak) from 01:12–23:58 UTC, adding 22 BTC of buying pressure on top of the broader buying flow.
Flow reversed midday. The first 12 hours belonged to buyers (+617 BTC), but sellers erased that and then some (-278 BTC) in the back half.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Asia traders set the tone. 65% of directional flow — 752 BTC of buying — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia +0.10%, Europe -0.12%, US +1.31%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.10% | 752 BTC | 65% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.12% | -232 BTC | 20% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 1.31% | -181 BTC | 16% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
This day sat within a chop regime. The +1.28% return tracked the regime average of +0.10%.
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