BTC Flow Analysis — September 25, 2023 CHOP
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 873,488 trades
Summary
On Monday, September 25, 2023, Bitcoin finished near unchanged (+0.21%) to $26,305. Net flow: -957 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Large players were on the wrong side — or the patient side. 9 bars of outsized trade sizes (peak 5.0σ) showed net buying, but price moved against them. Either they were accumulating into weakness or got caught.
A disconnect between flow and price (correlation: -0.62). Neither buyers nor sellers could convert aggressor-side pressure into directional movement.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Across sessions: Asia -0.23%, Europe -0.11%, US +0.55% — with US doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.23% | 54 BTC | 5% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.11% | -543 BTC | 51% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.55% | -468 BTC | 44% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The selling streak extended to 7 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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