BTC Flow Analysis — September 13, 2023 BEAR
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 714,880 trades
Summary
On Wednesday, September 13, 2023, Bitcoin edged higher (+1.48%) to $26,222. Net flow: -1,037 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Despite persistent sell-side aggression (flow-price correlation -0.43), price rose +1.48%. This divergence typically signals strong passive demand — buyers who don't need to cross the spread.
Whale-sized trades (20 bars above 3σ, peak 10.1σ) pushed 130 BTC of net buying between 00:13–17:55 UTC — while price went the other way. Possible accumulation, possible pain.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out US and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 74% of the net flow (1,092 BTC selling).
Morning and afternoon traded like two different markets. Buyers led early (+478 BTC), sellers dominated late (-1,515 BTC).
Across sessions: Asia +0.15%, Europe +0.95%, US +0.37% — with Europe doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.15% | 222 BTC | 15% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.95% | -167 BTC | 11% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.37% | -1092 BTC | 74% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
In retrospect, the bear regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 0 day(s) away.
The selling streak extended to 15 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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