BTC Flow Analysis — August 16, 2023 CHOP
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 768,028 trades
Summary
Bitcoin slipped 1.61% on Wednesday, August 16, 2023, closing at $28,731 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 3,473 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 27 bars of outsized trades (6.7σ peak) from 00:19–16:31 UTC, adding 679 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
This was day 8 of consecutive net selling. Multi-day streaks reflect sustained conviction, not noise.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.86 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia -0.01%, Europe -0.37%, US -1.23%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.01% | -467 BTC | 13% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.37% | -989 BTC | 28% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -1.23% | -2017 BTC | 58% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At -2.3σ from the chop-regime average, this was one of the most intense selling days in the period — 3,473 BTC of net pressure overwhelmed the typical flow pattern.
The chop regime was running out of road — 0 day(s) before the market shifted to bear. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
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