BTC Flow Analysis — May 22, 2023 BEAR
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 717,111 trades
Summary
May 22, 2023: Bitcoin ticked up +0.38%. The 1,179 BTC of net selling flow at $26,849 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
A textbook absorption day. Sellers hit the bid aggressively (correlation between cumulative flow and price: -0.59), but price still climbed +0.38%. The buying was passive — limit orders soaking up the supply.
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 13 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 5.4σ), spread across 00:30–21:51 UTC. The 266 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Most of the action happened during US hours, which accounted for 64% of the day's net flow (754 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
This was day 5 of consecutive net selling. Multi-day streaks reflect sustained conviction, not noise.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia +0.36%, Europe +0.61%, US -0.58%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.36% | -390 BTC | 33% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.61% | -35 BTC | 3% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.58% | -754 BTC | 64% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The bear regime was running out of road — 2 day(s) before the market shifted to chop. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
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