BTC Flow Analysis — May 08, 2023 CHOP
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,600,637 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $27,669 on May 08, 2023 after lost 2.7%. Aggressor-side flow netted -3,549 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
11 bars of outsized trades (peak 7.3σ) appeared between 03:02–14:10 UTC, with whale flow netting 63 BTC of buying.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.97). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The Asia session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -1.60%, Europe -0.43%, US -0.67%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.60% | -1764 BTC | 50% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.43% | -489 BTC | 14% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.67% | -1296 BTC | 37% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The 3,549 BTC of net selling was extreme by any measure (-2.3σ vs chop-regime average). The market's typical flow balance broke down.
The chop regime was running out of road — 2 day(s) before the market shifted to bear. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
The selling streak extended to 8 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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