BTC Flow Analysis — March 21, 2023 BEAR
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 11,530,870 trades
Summary
March 21, 2023: Bitcoin ground out a +1.40% gain. The 15 BTC of net buying flow at $28,105 told a clear story — buyers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Large-player activity detected: 29 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 6.2σ) between 00:25–14:38 UTC. Whale flow netted 1,105 BTC of selling.
Net buying for 10 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.89 correlation between cumulative flow and price means buying pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
A tale of two halves — buyers pushed 286 BTC through the morning, then sellers flipped the script with 271 BTC in the afternoon.
Breaking it down by session: Asia -0.76%, Europe +1.94%, US +0.24%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.76% | -1371 BTC | 46% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.94% | 1499 BTC | 50% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.24% | -113 BTC | 4% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The bear regime was running out of road — 1 day(s) before the market shifted to bull. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
Unusually heavy volume at 420,930 BTC — +3.0σ above the bear-regime baseline. The market was paying attention.
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