BTC Flow Analysis — March 12, 2023 BEAR
Sunday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 9,721,933 trades
Summary
Bitcoin ripped +7.5% to the upside on Sunday, March 12, 2023, closing at $21,997 as buyers controlled aggregate flow with 6,333 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player buying throughout the day. 12 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 3.7σ), spread across 02:01–19:32 UTC. The 2,372 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's buying bias.
A volatile day: 9.2% range from $20,271 to $22,150. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.96). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
US traders set the tone. 98% of directional flow — 6,341 BTC of buying — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia -0.53%, Europe +0.18%, US +7.91%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.53% | 64 BTC | 1% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.18% | -72 BTC | 1% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 7.91% | 6341 BTC | 98% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The 6,333 BTC of net buying was extreme by any measure (+2.4σ vs bear-regime average). The market's typical flow balance broke down.
Even by bear-regime standards, +7.54% was extreme — +2.1σ from the -0.27% average. This wasn't a normal bear day.
Trading activity surged to +3.1σ above the regime norm (430,945 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
Related Days
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