BTC Flow Analysis — March 09, 2023 BEAR
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 10,076,702 trades
Summary
Bitcoin dropped 6.2% in a sharp selloff on Thursday, March 09, 2023, closing at $20,362 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 7,857 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 37 bars of outsized trades (4.7σ peak) from 04:28–20:59 UTC, adding 4,883 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Day 3 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
A volatile day: 8.3% range from $20,043 to $21,835. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.99). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
US traders set the tone. 98% of directional flow — 7,710 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia -0.07%, Europe +0.07%, US -6.18%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.07% | -117 BTC | 1% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.07% | -30 BTC | 0% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -6.18% | -7710 BTC | 98% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Net selling hit 7,857 BTC, landing -3.0σ outside the bear-regime norm. Days with this level of one-sided flow have historically marked inflection points within the regime.
Day 1 of a fresh bear regime. The market had just flipped from chop, and the new character was still establishing itself.
Trading activity surged to +3.2σ above the regime norm (443,658 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
Related Days
Days with similar flow patterns and market conditions.
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