BTC Flow Analysis — November 08, 2022 CHOP
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 14,530,601 trades
Summary
On Tuesday, November 08, 2022, Bitcoin dropped 9.9% in a sharp selloff to $18,547. Net flow: -11,154 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 19 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 9.6σ), spread across 02:52–19:32 UTC. The 656 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
This was day 3 of consecutive net selling. Multi-day streaks reflect sustained conviction, not noise.
A volatile day: 17.2% range from $17,167 to $20,701. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.85). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out Asia and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 64% of the net flow (7,094 BTC selling).
Across sessions: Asia -3.85%, Europe -1.22%, US -5.15% — with US doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -3.85% | -7094 BTC | 64% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -1.22% | -1399 BTC | 13% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -5.15% | -2662 BTC | 24% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At -7.3σ from the chop-regime average, this was one of the most intense selling days in the period — 11,154 BTC of net pressure overwhelmed the typical flow pattern.
Even by chop-regime standards, -9.92% was extreme — -4.3σ from the +0.10% average. This wasn't a normal chop day.
The chop regime was running out of road — 0 day(s) before the market shifted to bear. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
Trading activity surged to +8.0σ above the regime norm (760,705 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
Related Days
Days with similar flow patterns and market conditions.
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