BTC Flow Analysis — October 06, 2022 CHOP
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 5,085,004 trades
Summary
October 06, 2022: Bitcoin gave back 0.98%. The 2,994 BTC of net buying flow at $19,961 told a clear story — buyers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
A frustrating day for buyers. Cumulative flow leaned positive but price declined -0.98% (correlation: -0.52). Passive selling at higher prices kept rejecting the advances.
Whale-sized trades (4 bars above 3σ, peak 10.2σ) pushed 133 BTC of net selling between 03:37–11:35 UTC — while price went the other way. Possible accumulation, possible pain.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Most of the action happened during Asia hours, which accounted for 63% of the day's net flow (2,197 BTC buying). The rest of the day was a footnote.
Breaking it down by session: Asia +0.30%, Europe -0.53%, US -0.74%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.30% | 2197 BTC | 63% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.53% | -238 BTC | 7% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.74% | 1036 BTC | 30% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The chop regime was running out of road — 3 day(s) before the market shifted to bear. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
A +2.0σ day — buying pressure exceeded the typical chop-regime flow (-670 BTC) by a notable margin.
Trading activity surged to +3.0σ above the regime norm (320,122 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
Related Days
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