BTC Flow Analysis — September 09, 2022 BEAR
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 7,777,214 trades
Summary
On Friday, September 09, 2022, Bitcoin surged +10.6% to $21,360. Net flow: +7,039 BTC — buyers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player buying throughout the day. 17 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 6.9σ), spread across 00:29–23:58 UTC. The 1,388 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's buying bias.
From $19,292 to $21,597 — a 11.9% range that forced both bulls and bears to respect the volatility.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.98). Aggressor-side buying translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out Asia and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 66% of the net flow (4,671 BTC buying).
Across sessions: Asia +6.79%, Europe +1.81%, US +1.70% — with Asia doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 6.79% | 4671 BTC | 66% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.81% | 1261 BTC | 18% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 1.70% | 1106 BTC | 16% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 7,039 BTC net buying, registering at +2.7σ relative to other bear-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
Even by bear-regime standards, +10.56% was extreme — +3.0σ from the -0.27% average. This wasn't a normal bear day.
In retrospect, the bear regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 0 day(s) away.
Trading activity surged to +3.1σ above the regime norm (428,920 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
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