BTC Flow Analysis — May 16, 2022 BEAR
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,561,954 trades
Summary
On Monday, May 16, 2022, Bitcoin fell 4.6% to $29,874. Net flow: -514 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Large-player activity detected: 13 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 7.6σ) between 00:30–23:49 UTC. Whale flow netted 56 BTC of buying.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.88 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out Asia and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 66% of the net flow (920 BTC selling).
Morning and afternoon traded like two different markets. Sellers led early (-605 BTC), buyers dominated late (+91 BTC).
Across sessions: Asia -5.54%, Europe -0.25%, US +1.20% — with Asia doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -5.54% | -920 BTC | 66% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.25% | -36 BTC | 3% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 1.20% | 442 BTC | 32% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Nothing unusual for a bear-regime day. The -4.64% return was consistent with the period's average of -0.27%.
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