BTC Flow Analysis — May 09, 2022 BEAR
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,564,538 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $30,076 on May 09, 2022 after crashed 11.6%. Aggressor-side flow netted -18,799 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 28 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 8.3σ), spread across 02:26–23:04 UTC. The 1,546 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Day 3 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
From $30,033 to $34,243 — a 12.4% range that forced both bulls and bears to respect the volatility.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.97). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The US session drove 65% of the day's directional flow, with 12,302 BTC of net selling. The other two sessions were comparatively quiet.
The US session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -1.51%, Europe -1.45%, US -8.96%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.51% | -2965 BTC | 16% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -1.45% | -3532 BTC | 19% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -8.96% | -12302 BTC | 65% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Among the heaviest selling days in this bear regime. Net flow of -18,799 BTC placed this day at -7.2σ from the regime mean.
Even by bear-regime standards, -11.64% was extreme — -3.1σ from the -0.27% average. This wasn't a normal bear day.
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