BTC Flow Analysis — March 10, 2022 BULL
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,512,655 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $39,422 on March 10, 2022 after plunged 6.0%. Aggressor-side flow netted -4,354 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Someone was moving size. 8 bars between 00:17–23:35 UTC registered trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 7.5σ), pushing 130 BTC net selling.
From $38,540 to $42,040 — a 8.3% range that forced both bulls and bears to respect the volatility.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.84 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The Asia session drove 67% of the day's directional flow, with 2,900 BTC of net selling. The other two sessions were comparatively quiet.
The Asia session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -6.44%, Europe -0.95%, US +1.43%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -6.44% | -2900 BTC | 67% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.95% | -944 BTC | 22% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 1.43% | -511 BTC | 12% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 4,354 BTC net selling, registering at -2.6σ relative to other bull-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
A statistical outlier: -6.01% return sits at -2.3σ from the bull-regime average of +0.34%. Days like this are rare within this regime.
In retrospect, the bull regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 3 day(s) away.
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