BTC Flow Analysis — February 17, 2022 CHOP
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,067,658 trades
Summary
February 17, 2022: Bitcoin plunged -7.7%. The 4,309 BTC of net selling flow at $40,516 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 29 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 8.8σ), spread across 00:56–23:41 UTC. The 518 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
A volatile day: 9.3% range from $40,073 to $44,165. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.98 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia +0.10%, Europe -3.82%, US -4.08%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.10% | -1042 BTC | 24% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -3.82% | -774 BTC | 18% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -4.08% | -2493 BTC | 58% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The 4,309 BTC of net selling was extreme by any measure (-2.8σ vs chop-regime average). The market's typical flow balance broke down.
At -3.3σ from the regime mean, this -7.65% move was an outlier within the chop period (avg +0.10%).
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