BTC Flow Analysis — November 26, 2021 BEAR
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,138,184 trades
Summary
November 26, 2021: Bitcoin plunged -8.9%. The 3,353 BTC of net selling flow at $53,727 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
12 bars of outsized trades (peak 6.3σ) appeared between 00:29–19:57 UTC, with whale flow netting 250 BTC of buying.
A volatile day: 9.6% range from $53,500 to $59,150. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.98 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Most of the action happened during Europe hours, which accounted for 62% of the day's net flow (2,089 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
Breaking it down by session: Asia -3.40%, Europe -4.16%, US -1.59%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -3.40% | -673 BTC | 20% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -4.16% | -2089 BTC | 62% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -1.59% | -591 BTC | 18% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At -2.4σ from the regime mean, this -8.88% move was an outlier within the bear period (avg -0.27%).
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