BTC Flow Analysis — October 21, 2021 BULL
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,181,665 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $62,193 on October 21, 2021 after crashed 5.8%. Aggressor-side flow netted -4,522 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 18 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 9.4σ), spread across 02:17–23:09 UTC. The 143 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.95). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The US session drove 69% of the day's directional flow, with 3,098 BTC of net selling. The other two sessions were comparatively quiet.
The US session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -1.36%, Europe -0.54%, US -3.95%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.36% | -1076 BTC | 24% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.54% | -347 BTC | 8% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -3.95% | -3098 BTC | 69% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 4,522 BTC net selling, registering at -2.7σ relative to other bull-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
Even by bull-regime standards, -5.77% was extreme — -2.2σ from the +0.34% average. This wasn't a normal bull day.
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