BTC Flow Analysis — October 01, 2021 BEAR
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,771,237 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $48,142 on October 01, 2021 after ripped 9.9% to the upside. Aggressor-side flow netted +2,069 BTC, favoring buyers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 17 bars of outsized trades (9.7σ peak) from 01:08–22:50 UTC, adding 273 BTC of buying pressure on top of the broader buying flow.
The day split in half. Buyers controlled the first 12 hours (+2,526 BTC), then sellers took over (-457 BTC). The reversal changed the character of the day.
A volatile day: 11.9% range from $43,283 to $48,495. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.95). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The Europe session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia +2.21%, Europe +4.90%, US +2.47%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 2.21% | 833 BTC | 40% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 4.90% | 1218 BTC | 59% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 2.47% | 18 BTC | 1% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Even by bear-regime standards, +9.86% was extreme — +2.8σ from the -0.27% average. This wasn't a normal bear day.
The bear regime was running out of road — 2 day(s) before the market shifted to chop. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
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