BTC Flow Analysis — September 20, 2021 BEAR
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,842,231 trades
Summary
Bitcoin crashed -8.9% on Monday, September 20, 2021, closing at $43,016 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 5,787 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 16 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 9.3σ), spread across 01:57–22:02 UTC. The 232 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Day 15 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
The 10.3% intraday range ($42,500 – $47,347) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.92). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia -5.12%, Europe -1.73%, US -2.36%. Asia led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -5.12% | -2212 BTC | 38% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -1.73% | -2922 BTC | 50% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -2.36% | -654 BTC | 11% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 5,787 BTC net selling, registering at -2.2σ relative to other bear-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
At -2.4σ from the regime mean, this -8.95% move was an outlier within the bear period (avg -0.27%).
The market was 1 day(s) into a new bear regime, having transitioned from chop. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
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