BTC Flow Analysis — July 12, 2021 CHOP
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,176,847 trades
Summary
On Monday, July 12, 2021, Bitcoin lost 3.4% to $33,087. Net flow: -2,976 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 18 bars of outsized trades (9.0σ peak) from 01:51–22:04 UTC, adding 81 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.89). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Across sessions: Asia +0.07%, Europe -2.06%, US -1.45% — with Europe doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.07% | -1483 BTC | 50% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -2.06% | -688 BTC | 23% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -1.45% | -805 BTC | 27% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The chop regime was running out of road — 0 day(s) before the market shifted to bear. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
A -2.0σ day — selling pressure exceeded the typical chop-regime flow (-670 BTC) by a notable margin.
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