BTC Flow Analysis — June 16, 2021 BEAR
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,134,897 trades
Summary
June 16, 2021: Bitcoin fell 4.5%. The 3,497 BTC of net selling flow at $38,349 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
26 bars of outsized trades (peak 8.1σ) appeared between 00:16–23:37 UTC, with whale flow netting 470 BTC of buying.
Most of the action happened during US hours, which accounted for 75% of the day's net flow (2,618 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
This was day 3 of consecutive net selling. Multi-day streaks reflect sustained conviction, not noise.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.87 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia -0.04%, Europe -2.24%, US -2.24%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.04% | -838 BTC | 24% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -2.24% | -41 BTC | 1% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -2.24% | -2618 BTC | 75% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The bear regime was running out of road — 1 day(s) before the market shifted to chop. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
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