BTC Flow Analysis — May 23, 2021 BEAR
Sunday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 4,082,004 trades
Summary
May 23, 2021: Bitcoin dropped 7.5% in a sharp selloff. The 7,861 BTC of net selling flow at $34,655 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 21 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 8.4σ), spread across 01:25–23:02 UTC. The 1,022 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
The 19.1% intraday range ($31,111 – $38,271) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.85). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia -4.09%, Europe -6.36%, US +3.00%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -4.09% | -1150 BTC | 15% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -6.36% | -3341 BTC | 43% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 3.00% | -3370 BTC | 43% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The 7,861 BTC of net selling was extreme by any measure (-3.0σ vs bear-regime average). The market's typical flow balance broke down.
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