BTC Flow Analysis — May 16, 2021 BEAR
Sunday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,661,295 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $46,432 on May 16, 2021 after slipped 0.71%. Aggressor-side flow netted -6,675 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 30 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 8.2σ), spread across 02:53–22:31 UTC. The 639 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Day 11 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
A volatile day: 12.8% range from $43,825 to $49,796. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.83 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The US session drove 67% of the day's directional flow, with 4,485 BTC of net selling. The other two sessions were comparatively quiet.
The Asia session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia +5.59%, Europe -0.93%, US -5.08%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 5.59% | -842 BTC | 13% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.93% | -1348 BTC | 20% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -5.08% | -4485 BTC | 67% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Among the heaviest selling days in this bear regime. Net flow of -6,675 BTC placed this day at -2.5σ from the regime mean.
Related Days
Days with similar flow patterns and market conditions.
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