BTC Flow Analysis — May 12, 2021 BEAR
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,676,826 trades
Summary
Bitcoin crashed -12.4% on Wednesday, May 12, 2021, closing at $49,631 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 3,243 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
35 bars of outsized trades (peak 7.8σ) appeared between 00:31–23:41 UTC, with whale flow netting 521 BTC of buying.
Flow reversed midday. The first 12 hours belonged to buyers (+499 BTC), but sellers erased that and then some (-3,742 BTC) in the back half.
Day 7 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
The 16.6% intraday range ($48,600 – $58,000) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
US traders set the tone. 86% of directional flow — 3,900 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia +0.76%, Europe -0.60%, US -12.56%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.76% | 196 BTC | 4% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.60% | 461 BTC | 10% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -12.56% | -3900 BTC | 86% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At -3.3σ from the regime mean, this -12.42% move was an outlier within the bear period (avg -0.27%).
The market was 1 day(s) into a new bear regime, having transitioned from chop. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
Related Days
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