BTC Flow Analysis — May 10, 2021 CHOP
Monday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,575,419 trades
Summary
Bitcoin sold off -4.2% on Monday, May 10, 2021, closing at $55,816 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 3,470 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
25 bars of outsized trades (peak 7.7σ) appeared between 00:24–20:47 UTC, with whale flow netting 33 BTC of buying.
Flow reversed midday. The first 12 hours belonged to buyers (+250 BTC), but sellers erased that and then some (-3,720 BTC) in the back half.
Net selling for 5 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
The 10.5% intraday range ($53,400 – $59,500) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.92). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
US traders set the tone. 71% of directional flow — 3,184 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia +0.22%, Europe -1.19%, US -3.22%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.22% | 520 BTC | 12% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -1.19% | -806 BTC | 18% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -3.22% | -3184 BTC | 71% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 3,470 BTC net selling, registering at -2.3σ relative to other chop-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
The market was 2 day(s) into a new chop regime, having transitioned from bear. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
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