BTC Flow Analysis — March 26, 2021 CHOP
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,773,150 trades
Summary
March 26, 2021: Bitcoin exploded +7.3% higher. The 169 BTC of net selling flow at $55,026 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
A textbook absorption day. Sellers hit the bid aggressively (correlation between cumulative flow and price: -0.45), but price still climbed +7.28%. The buying was passive — limit orders soaking up the supply.
The big players were active all day. 24 bars of outsized trades (8.9σ peak) from 00:12–23:49 UTC, adding 292 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
A tale of two halves — sellers pushed 390 BTC through the morning, then buyers flipped the script with 222 BTC in the afternoon.
Breaking it down by session: Asia +4.44%, Europe -0.47%, US +3.20%. Asia stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 4.44% | -87 BTC | 33% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.47% | 47 BTC | 18% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 3.20% | -129 BTC | 49% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At +3.1σ from the regime mean, this +7.28% move was an outlier within the chop period (avg +0.10%).
The selling streak extended to 13 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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