BTC Flow Analysis — March 16, 2021 CHOP
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,241,208 trades
Summary
Bitcoin rallied +2.3% on Tuesday, March 16, 2021, closing at $56,901 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 2,336 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.66 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +2.33%.
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 18 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 5.5σ), spread across 00:19–23:07 UTC. The 111 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Day 3 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Asia traders set the tone. 97% of directional flow — 2,255 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia -0.66%, Europe +0.15%, US +2.85%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.66% | -2255 BTC | 97% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.15% | -32 BTC | 1% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 2.85% | -49 BTC | 2% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Net flow of -2,336 BTC was elevated at -1.5σ vs the chop-regime average of -670 BTC.
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